– [Narrator] What would happen
if China invaded Taiwan? (speaking in a foreign language) – [Narrator] What you're
seeing are training drills performed by the Chinese
and Taiwanese militaries. (missile exploding) Both sides are preparing for a conflict, which if it took place, would likely include
the US in some capacity. Analysts say there are
two causes for concern. One is China's longstanding position that Taiwan is a part of China and that it would seek
reunification by force if necessary. (speaking in Chinese) – [Narrator] The other
is its military builduip. The gravity of a potential
war has now become a commonplace discussion in the US national security community and raise questions about
how a conflict would unfold. To answer those questions, experts look to war games. – [Computer] Shall we play a game? – How can it ask you that? – How about global thermonuclear war? – [Narrator] Unlike in the movies, – What the hell? – [Narrator] In real
life war games resemble complex board games.
In 2022, the think tank, the Center for Strategic
and International Studies developed a war game for a
Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Most of the war games that have been done about a conflict between the US and China have been classified. – Rumors indicate very adverse outcomes, but the assumptions and the
mechanics are not well known because they're classified. We wanted to do something that was entirely unclassified so we could talk to a very broad audience. – [Narrator] Separated from
China's southeastern coast by 100 miles of sea, Taiwan is a self ruled island
that China claims as its own. The Central Intelligence agency estimates that Chinese leader Xi Jinping has set 2027 as the deadline for his military to be
ready to take the island.
CSIS based its war games on a hypothetical Chinese
invasion of Taiwan taking place in 2026. CSIS's war game is a
turn-based strategy simulation. After each turn is played, players turn to combat result tables and computer programs to
calculate combat outcomes. Today, CSIS research assistant Chris Park will be helping facilitate gameplay. Players are divided into two sides. The red team represents China. The blue team represents
the US and its allies. Of the 24 scenarios played, the version you are about
to see is the most likely. – As the game begins, the Chinese are moving
their ships around Taiwan and their aircraft over Taiwan. The United States is responding
with its own aircraft, with its bombers to attack
the Chinese naval forces and also with its surface ships that have been sent forward as part of the US effort
to deter the conflict. The United States also has
submarines in the streets. – [Narrator] CSIS's war game
is played with three maps.
Two operational maps represent
the regional operations of the US and its allies and the Chinese forces respectively. Another ground map is used for the operations on the island. – The Chinese have now invaded the island. They've landed forces in the south. Strategically, it'd be
better to land in the north. That's where the capital is. That's where much of the industry is.
The problem is that most of the Taiwanese military
capability also in the north, that makes it very
difficult to invade there. Several of our teams try to do that in some of the iterations, it was just too difficult. There were too many defending forces, so most of the Chinese teams
decided to land in the south. The challenge there is
to occupy the country and to take the capital, they have to fight their
way up the entire island. The campaign looks much
like the allied campaign in Italy during the Second
World War, bit by bit, very difficult terrain. Here we see that the Chinese have landed. First we have troops landing on the beach. There are only a handful of good beaches on Taiwan for landing troops.
These are indicated on the map and then around the airfield we have Chinese parachute
and air mobile troops, that is troops coming in by helicopter. And the purpose of doing that is if they can capture the airfield intact, then they can fly in. Troops and supplies are
not dependent on ships and craft bringing troops and
supplies across the beach. – [Narrator] After both
sides play their turns, the game is paused for an adjudication in which the losses for
each side are calculated. – What we see is that the
Chinese amphibious units have successfully gone ashore. They've moved 10 kilometers inland and they eliminated
one Taiwanese battalion out of the defenders.
The air mobile and parachute
troops were less successful. That's a much more difficult operation. They landed around the airfield, eliminated one defending
Taiwanese battalion, but they lost three of
their own battalions. This is a very risky operation and they have not
captured the airfield yet. – [Narrator] Once the losses for the last turn are calculated, the second turn is played
with dramatic results. – There's not much change on the US side. Tremendous change on the Chinese side. Let's take a look. The US is continuing to focus on attacking the Chinese ships around Taiwan, trying to get through
the picket screen there to get at the amphibious ships.
The submarines are still in the straits. The one that was in the straits last turn has moved back to base in
Japan, Yakuza to reload. The squadron that was outside
the straits has moved in and a new squadron has moved forward. Now looking at the Chinese side here, we have a lot of change and the big thing is that the Chinese have decided to strike Japan. And they've decided to
strike in a major way rather than just strike one. Basically decided to strike
all of Japanese bases with Japanese aircraft and US aircraft. What you're seeing here is the flow of Taiwanese forces from the north where they were initially stationed protecting the capitol. Now they're coming down
both coasts to engage the Chinese landing troops in the south. There are more amphibious units that have come across the beach here. They're attacking the Taiwanese defenders. There are a few more air
mobile parachute units that have landed around the airfield. They've surrounded the Taiwanese, which are holding out on the airfield, but both of these Chinese forces are attacking the Taiwanese.
– [Narrator] After the
second turn is played, the second adjudication round takes stock of the losses on both sides. – This has been a massive term. Both sides have taken
very heavy casualties. The results are that the Chinese lose one battalion over here and the Taiwanese also lose
one defending battalion. Around the airfield, the Taiwanese lose one defending battalion and the Chinese lose
one attacking battalion. – [Narrator] We now fast
forward about three weeks to the last turn of the game. – [Mark] The Chinese have
moved up the east coast, but they've bumped into Taiwanese units that are coming down the east coast. That movement has been slowed
by the Chinese aircraft, which have been attacking
the transportation system, but eventually those troops get there and they've formed a pretty
solid line on the east coast.
The Chinese were able to clear the airport where the Taiwanese have been holding out and have moved forward here. In the center, they've bumped into a Taiwanese defensive line and that has been reinforced
by fortifications. They've moved into the city
down here in the south. The reason for moving into the
city is to capture the port. – [Narrator] Finally, we
arrive at the last adjudication and the end of the game.
– This scenario concludes with the Chinese established ashore, but unable to expand their forces there. Much of the Chinese amphibious fleet has been destroyed. The United States and its partners have been attacking
those ships relentlessly, so their ability to
bring troops and supplies onto the island has declined. Over time, those forces will weaken. The Taiwanese will push them back. Most of them will end
up as prisoners of war. When we ran this game,
we considered it a minor US coalition victory. It was a minor victory because it was gonna take a lot of time and there was going to be
a lot of damage to Taiwan, but it was a US and coalition victory because the Chinese were unable to establish themselves on Taiwan and Taiwan endured as an autonomous and democratic entity. – [Narrator] Although
the US and its allies came out on top in this scenario, the US was not always successful. – There were some scenarios where the United States
did lose the conflict.
A key requirement is the
use of bases in Japan. The United States has many bases there. If it cannot use those bases, then it has no way of getting its fight or in attack aircraft into the fight. – [Narrator] Regardless of the scenario, any iteration of CSIS's war games found that the cost for all
sides would be devastating. – The big takeaway from
the project is that the United States and its
coalition partners can sustain an autonomous and democratic Taiwan, but it comes at great cost
to the Taiwanese economy. The US and its partners lose very heavily, but so do the Chinese, enough so that the grip of
the Chinese Communist Party might be endangered. (soft music).