These Voters Could Cost Biden’s Re-Election Bid: A Data Breakdown | WSJ State of the Stat

– [Narrator] In this year's election, a majority of voters already
have a pretty good idea of which candidate they'll
choose in November. But 32% of the voting
pool is still persuadable. A combination of people who are undecided, say they're voting for a third party, or aren't fully committed to a candidate. Together, this group could
be the deciding factor in a tight election, swayed
by either Trump or Biden. And this year, they could offer some
additional challenges for the president. – Traditionally, a Democrat has to be up by four or five points in national polling to have the strength to win
in the electoral college. – [Narrator] So who
are these persuadables? And what can they tell
us about what candidates need to do before November? The persuadable group looks very different from the wider voting pool, based off a WSJ poll of
voters in swing states. For starters, they're less partisan than the rest of the electorate. They identify mostly as independent, so neither Republican or Democrat. And they're more likely
to identify as moderate in their ideology. Those stances mean that the issues they might be the most motivated by differ from more partisan voters.

– Well, a lot of the
issues that the candidates are talking about don't
resonate with them. These voters are not very
focused on immigration, which is something you'll
hear Donald Trump talk about almost every day. And abortion, these voters
are interested in abortion, but again, it doesn't pop as much as a top issue for these voters. These tend to be moderate,
economy-focused voters. The bread and butter economic issues that people deal with
in their daily lives. – [Narrator] And they
don't really feel good about either candidate. – It'll be a head-to-head comparison with two presidents with track records. There's nothing new or exciting about them at this particular point. – [Narrator] Richard Thau
moderates focus groups with voters to see how they're
feeling about candidates in this election. – So their minds basically are, "Ugh, why do I have to choose these guys? Why can't I have somebody else?" – [Narrator] While they
tend to rank Biden higher on issues like abortion
and protecting democracy, and Trump higher on
economy and immigration, they're far more likely than
the rest of the electorate to say that neither is best fit for handling any of these issues.

– They cannot wait to
get rid of both of them. They want them done for the
scene, they want them retired. They want a new generation
that is running the country. And that's the thing
that's different this time than I saw the last time. – [Narrator] These voters
also skew less White, and younger than the general electorate. And that spells trouble for Biden. Remember, these are the big
groups of the electorate that were crucial to
Biden's win over Trump. – They make up some of the main pillars of the Democratic coalition, and those pillars are showing cracks. Voters in those groups are
not coming out for Biden, they're saying they're gonna support Biden to the same degree as they
have in past elections. – [Narrator] For the most part, their problems with Biden
over the last four years reflect the larger electorate's
problems with Biden. First, there's Biden's
age and ability to lead. Across the polling pool, voters ranked Biden lower than Trump on his fitness for president. And young voters especially, think he's not in shape
to take office again. Then there's what he's actually been able to accomplish in office, especially when it comes to the economy.

– Although the macro numbers look great, a lot of the people I
interview aren't feeling the quality of the economy that the macro numbers are showing. – [Narrator] In one of
Thau's focus groups, this criticism was big with Black voters, who also make up the second biggest slice of persuadable voters by race this year. – If it was a significant
change in those areas, then it would be obvious,
we could all see it. And we could feel it in
our day-to-day lives. – [Narrator] But Trump has work
to do with persuadables too. Thau says that Trump's
conduct is one major reason voters are leaning away from him.

– They don't particularly
like him as a person or think he's a particularly
good role model. There are some of them who are concerned about his threat to democracy,
what they saw on January 6th. And they don't wanna replicate that again. – [Narrator] Both of these candidates will not only have to sway
these voters to their side, but also motivate them
to come out to the polls. Persuadables are less
likely to even commit to voting in November. – In the 2020 election, although Biden won the
popular vote by seven million, he won the electoral college by fewer than 44,000 votes in Wisconsin, Arizona,
and Georgia combined. It's a minuscule number. That's why we're so
focused on these groups, because if they had
just gone the other way, Trump would be president today. (bright music).

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