What These Three Scenarios in Iowa Reveal About 2024’s GOP Primary | WSJ

– [Narrator] The polls heading into the Iowa Republican
caucuses look like, well, Trump winning. But what's interesting is
what's happening down here. So we asked our political editor – – You can write Aaron
Zitner Wonk if you want. – [Narrator] to explain
what's really happening in the first stop of
the Republican primary. – Well, the race in Iowa is largely about who comes in second and by how much. It's gonna give us the
first clues in actual votes, not in polls or in media attention to whether the Republican
Party really is ready to consolidate behind Donald Trump.

– [Narrator] Here's why the Iowa caucus will likely determine how the rest of the Republican primary will go. – Let's look at some of the scenarios that could come out of Iowa. First and most likely,
Donald Trump dominates. That would give us a lot of signals about where the Republican Party is right now. – [Narrator] Because the party in Iowa hasn't gathered behind Trump. Ron desantis has gotten the endorsement of Iowa's very popular Republican governor and arguably the biggest
evangelical leader in the state, and he's visited all 99 counties. Nikki Haley, meanwhile, has
been campaigning hard in Iowa and is set up to spend the most in ads leading up to the caucus.
– Generation.

– If Donald Trump runs
away with the race in Iowa, that will tell us that even
influential Republicans don't have the juice to
persuade Republican voters that it's time to turn the page and to move on to another leader. A second possibility, Donald Trump wins, but by less of a margin,
and the second place is kind of a tie between Ron
DeSantis and Nikki Haley. That's also a good
outcome for Donald Trump because it will mean that voters who don't want him haven't consolidated around any individual
contender against him and instead, are dividing their vote among multiple candidates. – [Narrator] That happened in 2016. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio
split the non-Trump vote in a bunch of states. But that just allowed Trump to win and rack up the delegate count
needed for the nomination. – And then we come to a third scenario. And that's the one where
a single candidate emerges from Iowa with enough momentum to give Donald Trump a real
race throughout the primaries. – [Narrator] If one
candidate does well in Iowa, it would signal to voters
in other states and donors that they're a viable contender.

Just like it did for Trump
in 2016 or Romney in 2012, they both came in second in Iowa, but won New Hampshire next. And eventually, the nomination. And that's not unusual. Whoever wins Iowa usually
doesn't become the nominee. It doesn't help that Iowa is. – Very agricultural and very rural. But there are some places
that could give us clues to what might be coming
next in the primary process. And we'll look for those here and here, right around Des Moines and
in the two university towns just north of Des Moines and over here at the University of Iowa. They're upper income, they
are more highly educated and that means, they
look a little bit more like the state of New
Hampshire, which votes next. If Nikki Haley and Ron
Desantis don't do well in these areas that are
suburban and university-heavy, it's a signal that they
might not be doing well in the states that come next.

– And there's another reason Haley or DeSantis might want
to stay in the race. The numerous legal battles
Trump is currently facing. – They don't want to have dropped out if something unexpected happens and all of a sudden
Donald Trump isn't there to claim the nomination. – [Narrator] Iowa hasn't been a kingmaker. Instead, it's been a win over, defining who the top candidates are going to be in the primary from a large field and boosting the profile
of those that do well. In 2024, it will do it again. But whether it windows it to one, two, or three candidates will also show us if this primary will be
over in one month or six. (bright music).

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